Market Overview
The GBPAUD pair has been following a well-established ascending channel for an extended period. Currently, the price is testing the upper boundary of this channel, indicating a potential short-term retracement before a continuation of the bullish trend.
This analysis will break down key support/resistance levels, moving averages, fair value gaps (FVG), entry points, stop-loss (SL), take-profit (TP), and an overall trade setup.
Technical Analysis (Daily Timeframe)
1. Ascending Channel Structure
The price has been respecting an upward-sloping parallel channel, suggesting a long-term bullish trend.
- Upper boundary resistance: Price has reached this level, which could act as a temporary resistance.
- Lower boundary support: A key support area aligning with dynamic support levels.
2. Key Support and Resistance Levels
- Resistance Zone: 2.0500 (Upper channel boundary and psychological resistance).
- Support Zone: 1.9950 – 2.0000 (FVG-Key Level and potential demand area).
3. Fair Value Gap (FVG) – Key Level
The FVG zone around 1.9950 – 2.0000 is a crucial level where liquidity may be available for a bullish rebound. If price corrects into this area, it could serve as a strong buying opportunity.
4. Moving Averages (EMAs) as Dynamic Support
- 50 EMA (blue): 1.9703
- 100 EMA (red): 1.9788
- 200 EMA (green): 1.9611
These EMAs align closely with the potential support zone, reinforcing the idea of a strong bounce area.
Trade Setup & Entry Strategy
📌 Long Setup (Buy Trade Plan)
🔹 Entry:
- Ideal entry at 1.9950 – 2.0000 (FVG support level).
- Confirmation via bullish candlestick formations (such as bullish engulfing, pin bar, or inside bar).
🔹 Stop Loss (SL):
- Below 1.9650, considering a break of the 200 EMA would invalidate the bullish bias.
🔹 Take Profit (TP) Targets:
- TP1: 2.0500 (Previous high and upper channel resistance).
- TP2: 2.0800 – 2.1000 (Psychological level and further channel extension).
🔹 Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):
- The trade setup offers an RRR of approximately 1:3, making it a favorable trade.
Conclusion
The GBPAUD pair is in a strong uptrend, but a short-term retracement toward 1.9950 – 2.0000 could provide a high-probability buying opportunity.
- Traders should wait for confirmation before entering a long trade.
- Proper risk management is essential, ensuring the SL is placed correctly.
